Ray Finau asked, updated on March 28th, 2021; Topic:
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To determine what the odds should be on a given game, oddsmakers rely heavily on advanced mathematics, scientific formulas, computer algorithms and experience. They also take into account power ratings. A power rating is a statistical representation of how strong every team is compared to each other.
In like manner, how do sportsbooks calculate odds?
How Are Odds Determined? Odds are engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager then, win or lose, they'll make 5-10% on the juice (or 'vig').
Until those playoffs arrive, no group is better equipped to determine the best teams in the country, or the champion, than Las Vegas Sports Consultants. It establishes the college footballpoint spreads used in 90 percent of the state's sports books.
Do bookies want the Favourite to win?
Bookmakers certainly do not prefer favourites to win! They may pretend they don't like it when 5000-1 shots win, but they're secretly delighted. It's favourites winning that they really hate.
The answer is the total number of outcomes. Probability can be expressed as 9/30 = 3/10 = 30% - the number of favorable outcomes over the number of total possible outcomes. A simple formula for calculating odds from probability is O = P / (1 - P). A formula for calculating probability from odds is P = O / (O + 1).
To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by the top number (numerator), then divide the result by the bottom (denominator). So a $10 bet at 5/2 odds is (10 * 5) / 2, which equals $25. A $10 bet at 2/5 odds is (10 * 2) / 5, which is $4.
Usually, an NFL Over/Under bet is listed with a corresponding money line. For example: Over (–110) or Under (+110), meaning you'd wager $110 for the chance to win an additional $100 if you bet the over or wager $100 for the chance to win $110 if you bet the under.
Reading point spread lines Identify the favorite by the number with the minus-sign. Find the point spread. That's the number after the minus sign. Say your game is Detroit against Chicago, and the line reads "Chicago -6." This means Chicago is the favorite, and the "spread" is 6 points.
The negative (-) sign indicates that the Cowboys are the favorites, while the positive (+) sign indicates that the New York Giants are the underdogs. With the spread set at 2.5 points, a bet on the Cowboys would mean that they would have to win by more than 2.5 points (3 or more) in order for you to win that bet.